STATE POLLS

Posted at 7:42 p.m. ET

There are some new, fascinating state polls out today, mostly from Rasmussen.  They cover critical states.

Earlier we reported on a new poll showing Obama up only five points in passionately Democratic New York State.  If that trend continues, Obama will have to devote resources to the state, and, on bended knee, ask New York Senator Hillary Clinton to take care of business.  I'd love to be there.

Rasmussen reports Pennsylvania tied, 47-47.  If even approximately true, that is good news for Senator McCain.  If he can take Pennsylvania, he probably will win the election.

Rasmussen has McCain ahead 48-45 in Ohio, a traditional battleground state.  It's hard to see how McCain can win without Ohio.  A Survey USA poll in Ohio has McCain up four.

Rasmussen reports McCain up five in Florida.  Here McCain seems to be pulling away.

Rasmussen has the race tied in Virginia.  A Survey USA poll has Obama up four.  This is a problematical state that McCain almost has to carry to win.  It hasn't voted Democratic since 1964, but Obama has heavy support in the state's large African-American community and in some of the areas hugging Washington, D.C.  Watch Virginia very closely.

Rasmussen has McCain up two in Colorado.  Colorado is another critical state, one that can decide the election.  If McCain can pull it out, it's a big step forward.

State polls are important not only in indicating the direction of the race, but in determining where candidates put financial resources.  McCain is being forced to run a major campaign in traditionally Republican Virginia, but Obama may have to run major campaigns in traditionally Democratic New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania, where his leads, if any, are slim.

October is two weeks away.  Then we'll wonder about an October surprise.

September 15, 2008.